The power of the Nudge

Here's an interesting article on the power of the 'nudge' from the Sunday Times.

Politicians are devouring a book called Nudge, written by two American academics, Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, which demonstrates how "thoughtful choice architecture can be established to nudge us in beneficial directions without restricting freedom of choice". That is, by knowing how people think, we can design 'choice environments' that make it easier for people to choose what is best for themselves, their families, and their society.

The article mentions one example of this type of 'choice environment' - an ingenious little gadget called the Wattson which displays the amount of electricity you are using through colours and numbers, thus encouraging users to reduce the amount they use.

As the article explains, 'Nudge' is also encouraging politicians to think creatively about the power of social norms to influence our behaviour. As well as reducing our electricity consumption, other examples of areas in which social norms might provide a 'nudge' include organ donation and rubbish disposal.

...Realising that financial incentives and penalties such as green taxes had a limited effect on behaviour, Schultz set out to analyse how the energy usage of 300 people in San Marcos, California, could be changed for the better by invoking social norms.

He arranged for the participants to be told on their energy bills what the typical usage in the area was.

"Telling people what others are doing does tend to have an effect," he said. "But there are instances where it can boomerang – if you are using less energy than your neighbours, say by making a sacrifice by not running your air-conditioning, you can feel like a sucker." The result: your energy consumption goes up, not down, to meet the norm.

...Schultz’s solution was to add a little nudge. Some of the participants in his study had a smiley face added to their bill if they used less energy than the norm and a sad face if they used more. The results were startling. Among the participants receiving the emoticon, the boomerang effect completely disappeared. High users reduced their consumption by even more and low users kept their own down.

Disarmingly simple. So simple, in fact, that you wonder why no one's done it before!

Or, what about this "clever use of choice architecture [to] find a middle way for organ donation":

... "We quite like the idea of ‘mandated choice’ in this context," he said. This does not involve any presumption of opt-in or opt-out. Instead it requires people to make a deliberate choice by tacking the process onto something else, such as applying for a driver’s licence or a passport. That solves the problems of both our inertia and bias in the system.

You can see why the politicians are interested in this stuff. Something so simple is surely worth a try? But, as the article states, "it sounds too good to be true. Is it more wishful thinking than sensible policy? Can social norms really change our behaviour?"

Walking in the cool of the day

It's summer evenings like these when I most crave something of the 'Eden experience' of walking with God among the trees in the cool of the day.

Evening walks are so delicious, especially on these light, warm summer evenings, when everything is touched with golden light and there's such a peaceful stillness in the air. I'd love to go out for more walks on evenings like this but it's not the same on your own. Walks are meant to be enjoyed with others I think. There's something about walking and relationships that goes together.

It's times like this when I wonder what it was like for the disciples to walk with Jesus among the trees on the Mount of Olives in the cool of the evening, away from the crowds of Jerusalem. I know that I want more of that intimacy with God. I want to walk with Jesus among the trees, to talk with him, to listen, to feel his hand on my shoulder and his presence beside me. It feels right to describe the Christian life and our growing relationship with God as a walk, but I find myself longing for more of those times among the trees. If only I had more awareness of the reality of that walk together and was able to relax more often in the Lord's presence, talk together and know that evening peace.

The food crisis, the price of oil and my weekly shopping bill

I don't pretend to know a huge amount about the current food crisis (see previous post 'Sheltered from a Crisis') and what's caused it but some of the things I do know have made me really angry about the way the world works. Below I've laid out some of the reasons, as I understand them, for the current food crisis. Reading them you'll understand - if you don't already - why some of these things make me so frustrated and angry, and ultimately I know make God angry.

Why is there a food crisis?

The current crisis is the result of a massive increase in the price of grain and a shortage of supply, both of which have fed into each other to create a rapidly escalating worldwide food crisis which is driving 'the bottom billion' further into poverty and starvation (UN). There have been a number of long-term factors leading to rising worldwide food prices over the last few years. More recently the massive price increases (especially in wheat and rice) have been caused by drought and investors hoarding supplies, triggering worldwide panic-buying, which in turn has pushed grain prices to their current heights.

Long and Medium-term factors:

Increased demand for food worldwide.
Economic growth in China and India has lead to a significant rise in meat consumption (closer to a Western-style diet). Meat production requires 4-10 times as much grain to produce the same amount of food. [This has been happening for a while and no one quite agrees about how importanta factor it is in this current crisis.]

Biofuel production
Food crops, especially corn and soya are being diverted to biofuel production. This year a third of America's (highly subsidised) corn crop will go to the biofuel industry. The Bush administration has pushed the development of corn-ethanol as a domestically-available alternative to petrol (the US enthusiasm for biofuel isn't about saving the planet but rather saving America. Biofuel isn't seen as an environmental -or even economic- answer to the fossil fuels question, but ultimately as the answer to the always-pressing national security issue of oil availability and cost). The UN estimates that the diversion of corn to biofuels has already contributed 10% to the current rise in food prices, while the IMF estimates it at 20-30% (FT).*

The end of cheap food?
US and European farm subsidies have long kept the price of commodities such as wheat and soya artificially low. For example, between 1995 and 2005 American taxpayers supported US agriculture by $165bn, most of which went to the huge US-based trading giants such as Cargill and ADM (The Guardian). Low prices have led to under-investment in agriculture elsewhere, something which the rise in prices may actually help to remedy in time.

The price of oil
The increase in the price of oil (it has doubled in the past year) has lead to a steep rise in the price of fertiliser, (assisted by increased demand from the US biofuel industry). Transport prices have also increased. These have increased the cost of growing and transporting crops.

Medium to Short-term factors:

Extreme weather conditions
Severe drought in Australia over the last few years has significantly decreased their wheat and rice production (National Geographic).

Artificial shortages due to stockpiling and export restrictions.
With prices climbing, there's plenty of incentive for those at every point of the food production chain to stockpile commodities, from traders to store-owners. Investors seeking a profit have driven up prices further by buying up the market for future sale. In recent months rice-producing countries have also responded to the rise in food prices by taking steps to protect their own markets. India and Vietnam, the world's second and third largest rice producers, have introduced export restrictions. This stockpiling by producers as well as middlemen has limited supplies of rice and driven up prices still higher (Business Week).

Financial speculation on food prices.
Rising commodities prices (and a slow-down in other markets) has dramatically increased the appeal of food futures to speculators. Speculators buy and sell stocks or commodities in order to benefit from fluctuations in price (without any interest in the product itself). Food futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a given amount of food by a certain future date at a predetermined price. In trading futures speculators are gambling on the future price of food - i.e. that these will continue to rise. The speculators argue they are not driving the market, but cannot deny that the rising demand for commodities futures has amplified the price increases. In the past five years, the number of futures contracts for wheat has quadrupled (foreignpolicy.com).

So is this worldwide food crisis why my weekly shopping bill has increased so much?

The surprising answer might actually be 'no, not really'.

Although shoppers in Western countries have seen significant increases in the price of bread, rice, dairy products, eggs and so on, these have not in any way reflected the real worldwide increase in the cost of food. The supermarkets would like us to thank them for this, claiming to have insulated consumers with reduced profit margins. This may be true to a small degree but it's worth remembering that the real reason we have seen such a small increase in prices in comparison to world food prices is because such a small proportion of the price we pay for our food actually goes to pay for the ingredients. For example, if a loaf of bread costs £1 and 10p of that goes to pay for the flour, then a doubling in the price of flour will cause only a 10% rise in the price of bread (to £1.10). In fact the European Commission has argued that the near-doubling of the price of wheat should have led to only a 3% rise in the price of bread (FT) rather than the 10% we've seen (giving you an indication of the real proportion of the cost going on ingredients).

While they're certainly having an effect, supermarket food prices are affected surprisingly little by movements in food prices worldwide (although those buying direct from wholesalers, such as restaurants, are insulated much less. Indian restaurants have been hit particularly badly by the rising price of rice and subsequent shortages). In fact, the main factor currently driving up prices in Western supermarkets are increases in energy, labour and transport costs caused by the dramatic rise in the price of oil (which is also a major contributor to the worldwide crisis). And oil is not likely to get any cheaper. It looks like the days of cheap food are over - and no one knows quite what to do about it.**

* Corn-based ethanol is hugely controversial, even without taking the food considerations into account. Many have claimed that the energy required to grow and convert corn to ethanol is greater than the energy gained from the fuel (although it does reduce the consumption of oil overall). This MIT study attempts to bring some balance to the discussion. However it seems likely that the rising price of corn and soya have affected more than the price of food. Some claim that the rise in prices has led to increasing deforestation in places like the Amazon rainforest as farmers clear land for growing soya beans.

**I should add 'except God'. So perhaps it's time these world leaders got praying...

Everything you need to know in 7 minutes

Everything you need to know about the Democratic race for president in 7 minutes. Genius.


Via Marbury.

Sheltered from a crisis

These figures on the food crisis are quite incredible. The price of wheat has risen 130% since March last year. The increase in the price of rice has had huge effects worldwide.

Some of the effects to be caused by the crisis include a new craze for eating spaghetti in Liberia, families in Bangladesh surviving on one meal a day, 100 million extra families plunged into poverty, and food riots in Haiti, Cameroon, Indonesia and Egypt.

Read the BBC's Q&A on the crisis.

If ever there was a good reason to become a vegetarian, this is one.

Clip clip and away

How did I survive so long without an MP3 player? I've wanted one for years, but just kept putting off the crucial decision. Now, finally, I have my very own shiny red, matchbook-size 2GB player and I'm quite addicted to its charms.

The player that's captured my heart is the Sansa Clip 2GB with Radio - the red version, of course!

After first being drawn to its shiny red gorgeousness and miniature proportions and then charmed by its helpful little screen and friendliness to others (computers and software alike), you could now say I'm looking forward to a comfortable, committed future together...

It has a fantastic inbuilt clip - thus the name - which has proven really useful at the gym, the good sense to keep your place in an audio book even when you switch over to listen to something else, a radio, sensible controls, easy volume adjustment and it sounds great!

[advert over] :-)

I've also rediscovered audio books. Not a cheap option compared to a book, but what a treat! I signed up to Audible for a couple of months and this may be a new addiction! I listened to The Hobbit (unabridged) first - all 12 or so hours of it. Absolutely brilliant! For days you couldn't get much sense out of me at all, it was all 'What has he got in his pocketsess?' and 'the eagles! the eagles!'

My second find, and another treasure, has been Tim Butcher's Blood River, read by the author. In 2004 Tim, a correspondent for the Daily Telegraph, made his way alone across one of the most dangerous countries in the world, the Congo, inspired to follow the route of the famous explorer HM Stanley. This is his account of the adventure, the people he met and the history of this apparently doomed country. Obsessed, yes; crazy, probably. Yet this is a fantastic tale and a deeply provoking and affecting account of the present-day Congo and the forces which have shaped it and continue to do so. Thoroughly recommended.

Design for the Other 90%

The title of this post comes from a recent design exhibition - with a difference. As the exhibition website explains,

Of the world’s total population of 6.5 billion, 5.8 billion people, or 90%, have little or no access to most of the products and services many of us take for granted; in fact, nearly half do not have regular access to food, clean water, or shelter. Design for the Other 90% explores a growing movement among designers to design low-cost solutions for this 'other 90%.' Through partnerships both local and global, individuals and organizations are finding unique ways to address the basic challenges of survival and progress faced by the world’s poor and marginalized.

There are some fantastic ideas being showcased here, both ingenious and simple. Other websites celebrating designs for the developing world include the INDEX award, the Project H Design site, and the blog TreeHugger, among others.

I've long been fascinated by the development of the One Laptop Per Child project, its 'first principles' approach and the way in which OLPC have turned every assumption about building laptops on its head. There's an excellent video of the designer Mary Lou Jepsen at the Greener Gadgets show explaining the many innovations that have gone into the XO laptop and why it's not only low-cost and fit-for-purpose, but also amazingly 'green' as well. In fact, as she explains, it could not have been otherwise: the design had to be low energy and 'green' in order to survive in an environment where energy is at a premium. There's a great section about innovative charging methods including (my favourite) the cow-charger! I completely get her excitement - so many elements of this design are worth raving about!



Of the many design solutions being profiled on these websites, some of my other favourites include the LifeStraw, a personal water-filtration and purification device, the weird but ingeneous Stenop Low-Cost Correcting Glasses, and the simple but effective Hippo Roller!



Classic ideas also seeing a new lease of life include the Solar Oven, the WaterCone, a solar-powered water desalinator, and the Portable Light Project, which makes use of the new high-brightness LEDs.

"The majority of the world’s designers focus all their efforts on developing products and services exclusively for the richest 10% of the world’s customers. Nothing less than a revolution in design is needed to reach the other 90%."
—Dr. Paul Polak, International Development Enterprises (link)

Another design site I've enjoyed recently is the Houses of the Future project - check out the cardboard house!

What 'Other 90%' or 'Green' design ideas have caught your eye recently?

Abdul Rahman

I was struck by the story of this man, Abdul Rahman, who has been in the news recently, an Afghan Christian under trial for his life.

There is a short video of his confession of being 'a Jesus follower' on the website of the Afghan Christian News.

This man inspires me, standing up and declaring his faith in Jesus, despite the very real possibility of being hanged for his confession. It reminds me that we put our trust in the one who saves; He is only one who holds the power of life and death over us.

I want to pray for Abdul that he holds firmly to this truth, whatever happens. I ask for him to stand tall and be confident in God's presence. And I pray that he brings something of the love and saving grace of Jesus Christ to the prison where he is held, and to the country that wants to kill him.

Google goes out of this world

Check out Google Mars!

There's also a flight into Valles Marineris on Google Video (the HiRes version can be found here)

On the cover of Time Mag

Interesting choices...TIME Magazine has named Bono and Bill and Melinda Gates as their Persons of the Year. The articles are well worth a read (although you'll have to look at an advertisment before they let you at them!), and include a fascinating look at the political influence of Bono. I was intrigued to read about the relationship between the three of them and the way they're able to use their combined talents and resources as leverage in the sphere of global health.

word of the day!

I learnt a new word today. I'd heard it before but never had it defined:

"Theodicy is a branch of theology that studies how the existence of a good or benevolent God is reconciled with the existence of evil."

Some of the most interesting books I've read in the last year, including The Problem of Pain, Where Is God When It Hurts? and (one of my current reads) Disappointment With God might be defined as theodicies.

Does Jesus ever give a real theodicy in the Gospels? As far as I can see, he was mostly concerned with our response to, not our explanation of, evil and suffering.

Thoughts anyone?