The power of the Nudge

Here's an interesting article on the power of the 'nudge' from the Sunday Times.

Politicians are devouring a book called Nudge, written by two American academics, Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, which demonstrates how "thoughtful choice architecture can be established to nudge us in beneficial directions without restricting freedom of choice". That is, by knowing how people think, we can design 'choice environments' that make it easier for people to choose what is best for themselves, their families, and their society.

The article mentions one example of this type of 'choice environment' - an ingenious little gadget called the Wattson which displays the amount of electricity you are using through colours and numbers, thus encouraging users to reduce the amount they use.

As the article explains, 'Nudge' is also encouraging politicians to think creatively about the power of social norms to influence our behaviour. As well as reducing our electricity consumption, other examples of areas in which social norms might provide a 'nudge' include organ donation and rubbish disposal.

...Realising that financial incentives and penalties such as green taxes had a limited effect on behaviour, Schultz set out to analyse how the energy usage of 300 people in San Marcos, California, could be changed for the better by invoking social norms.

He arranged for the participants to be told on their energy bills what the typical usage in the area was.

"Telling people what others are doing does tend to have an effect," he said. "But there are instances where it can boomerang – if you are using less energy than your neighbours, say by making a sacrifice by not running your air-conditioning, you can feel like a sucker." The result: your energy consumption goes up, not down, to meet the norm.

...Schultz’s solution was to add a little nudge. Some of the participants in his study had a smiley face added to their bill if they used less energy than the norm and a sad face if they used more. The results were startling. Among the participants receiving the emoticon, the boomerang effect completely disappeared. High users reduced their consumption by even more and low users kept their own down.

Disarmingly simple. So simple, in fact, that you wonder why no one's done it before!

Or, what about this "clever use of choice architecture [to] find a middle way for organ donation":

... "We quite like the idea of ‘mandated choice’ in this context," he said. This does not involve any presumption of opt-in or opt-out. Instead it requires people to make a deliberate choice by tacking the process onto something else, such as applying for a driver’s licence or a passport. That solves the problems of both our inertia and bias in the system.

You can see why the politicians are interested in this stuff. Something so simple is surely worth a try? But, as the article states, "it sounds too good to be true. Is it more wishful thinking than sensible policy? Can social norms really change our behaviour?"

The food crisis, the price of oil and my weekly shopping bill

I don't pretend to know a huge amount about the current food crisis (see previous post 'Sheltered from a Crisis') and what's caused it but some of the things I do know have made me really angry about the way the world works. Below I've laid out some of the reasons, as I understand them, for the current food crisis. Reading them you'll understand - if you don't already - why some of these things make me so frustrated and angry, and ultimately I know make God angry.

Why is there a food crisis?

The current crisis is the result of a massive increase in the price of grain and a shortage of supply, both of which have fed into each other to create a rapidly escalating worldwide food crisis which is driving 'the bottom billion' further into poverty and starvation (UN). There have been a number of long-term factors leading to rising worldwide food prices over the last few years. More recently the massive price increases (especially in wheat and rice) have been caused by drought and investors hoarding supplies, triggering worldwide panic-buying, which in turn has pushed grain prices to their current heights.

Long and Medium-term factors:

Increased demand for food worldwide.
Economic growth in China and India has lead to a significant rise in meat consumption (closer to a Western-style diet). Meat production requires 4-10 times as much grain to produce the same amount of food. [This has been happening for a while and no one quite agrees about how importanta factor it is in this current crisis.]

Biofuel production
Food crops, especially corn and soya are being diverted to biofuel production. This year a third of America's (highly subsidised) corn crop will go to the biofuel industry. The Bush administration has pushed the development of corn-ethanol as a domestically-available alternative to petrol (the US enthusiasm for biofuel isn't about saving the planet but rather saving America. Biofuel isn't seen as an environmental -or even economic- answer to the fossil fuels question, but ultimately as the answer to the always-pressing national security issue of oil availability and cost). The UN estimates that the diversion of corn to biofuels has already contributed 10% to the current rise in food prices, while the IMF estimates it at 20-30% (FT).*

The end of cheap food?
US and European farm subsidies have long kept the price of commodities such as wheat and soya artificially low. For example, between 1995 and 2005 American taxpayers supported US agriculture by $165bn, most of which went to the huge US-based trading giants such as Cargill and ADM (The Guardian). Low prices have led to under-investment in agriculture elsewhere, something which the rise in prices may actually help to remedy in time.

The price of oil
The increase in the price of oil (it has doubled in the past year) has lead to a steep rise in the price of fertiliser, (assisted by increased demand from the US biofuel industry). Transport prices have also increased. These have increased the cost of growing and transporting crops.

Medium to Short-term factors:

Extreme weather conditions
Severe drought in Australia over the last few years has significantly decreased their wheat and rice production (National Geographic).

Artificial shortages due to stockpiling and export restrictions.
With prices climbing, there's plenty of incentive for those at every point of the food production chain to stockpile commodities, from traders to store-owners. Investors seeking a profit have driven up prices further by buying up the market for future sale. In recent months rice-producing countries have also responded to the rise in food prices by taking steps to protect their own markets. India and Vietnam, the world's second and third largest rice producers, have introduced export restrictions. This stockpiling by producers as well as middlemen has limited supplies of rice and driven up prices still higher (Business Week).

Financial speculation on food prices.
Rising commodities prices (and a slow-down in other markets) has dramatically increased the appeal of food futures to speculators. Speculators buy and sell stocks or commodities in order to benefit from fluctuations in price (without any interest in the product itself). Food futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell a given amount of food by a certain future date at a predetermined price. In trading futures speculators are gambling on the future price of food - i.e. that these will continue to rise. The speculators argue they are not driving the market, but cannot deny that the rising demand for commodities futures has amplified the price increases. In the past five years, the number of futures contracts for wheat has quadrupled (foreignpolicy.com).

So is this worldwide food crisis why my weekly shopping bill has increased so much?

The surprising answer might actually be 'no, not really'.

Although shoppers in Western countries have seen significant increases in the price of bread, rice, dairy products, eggs and so on, these have not in any way reflected the real worldwide increase in the cost of food. The supermarkets would like us to thank them for this, claiming to have insulated consumers with reduced profit margins. This may be true to a small degree but it's worth remembering that the real reason we have seen such a small increase in prices in comparison to world food prices is because such a small proportion of the price we pay for our food actually goes to pay for the ingredients. For example, if a loaf of bread costs £1 and 10p of that goes to pay for the flour, then a doubling in the price of flour will cause only a 10% rise in the price of bread (to £1.10). In fact the European Commission has argued that the near-doubling of the price of wheat should have led to only a 3% rise in the price of bread (FT) rather than the 10% we've seen (giving you an indication of the real proportion of the cost going on ingredients).

While they're certainly having an effect, supermarket food prices are affected surprisingly little by movements in food prices worldwide (although those buying direct from wholesalers, such as restaurants, are insulated much less. Indian restaurants have been hit particularly badly by the rising price of rice and subsequent shortages). In fact, the main factor currently driving up prices in Western supermarkets are increases in energy, labour and transport costs caused by the dramatic rise in the price of oil (which is also a major contributor to the worldwide crisis). And oil is not likely to get any cheaper. It looks like the days of cheap food are over - and no one knows quite what to do about it.**

* Corn-based ethanol is hugely controversial, even without taking the food considerations into account. Many have claimed that the energy required to grow and convert corn to ethanol is greater than the energy gained from the fuel (although it does reduce the consumption of oil overall). This MIT study attempts to bring some balance to the discussion. However it seems likely that the rising price of corn and soya have affected more than the price of food. Some claim that the rise in prices has led to increasing deforestation in places like the Amazon rainforest as farmers clear land for growing soya beans.

**I should add 'except God'. So perhaps it's time these world leaders got praying...

Everything you need to know in 7 minutes

Everything you need to know about the Democratic race for president in 7 minutes. Genius.


Via Marbury.

From West Wing to the Real Thing

... so states the headline of an article on Barack Obama in today's Guardian. I'm glad I'm not the only person getting confused between The West Wing and the real world of US Politics!

It turns out that Matthew Santos, the 'next' president in The West Wing, was in fact modelled on Barack Obama - way back in 2004. As the article states, "the result is a bizarre case of art imitating life - only for life to imitate art back again."

In the TV show, Santos begins as the rank outsider up against a national figure famous for standing at the side of a popular Democratic president. There are doubts about Santos's inexperience, having served just a few years in Congress, and about his ability to persuade voters to back an ethnic minority candidate - even as his own ethnic group harbour suspicions that he might not identify with them sufficiently.

But the soaring power of his rhetoric, his declaration that the old divisions belong in the past and his sheer magnetism, ensure that he comes from behind in a fiercely close primary campaign and draws level with his once all-commanding opponent. Every aspect of that storyline has come true for Barack Obama. Axelrod, now chief strategist for the Obama campaign, recently joked in an email to Attie: "We're living your scripts!"

The Telegraph also found a list of 'delicious parallels' between The West Wing and the US Presidential Election.

Could this be how it ends? :-)

Matthew Santos' stirring convention speech (from 'The West Wing'):

Confused about Open Theism?

If anyone reading this has been confused about all this Greg Boyd and open theism-stuff I've been going on about recently, you might find this letter he wrote to another blogger helpful. It's good as a quick overview - and useful to hear what he thinks first hand.

Boyd's also become much talked-about in the States for suggesting that our kingdom is not of this world and the church shouldn't get too cosy with politics. I would recommend this video of Boyd talking on Charlie Rose. He's excellent - lucid, convincing and clearly Kingdom-chasing! I like what he says about getting 'under' people, rather than 'over' them.

Web of Conflict

I found this infographic on relationships in the Middle East hugely useful in understanding some of the roots of the current conflict in Lebanon and the tangled web of influence and hostility in the region. I don't think I had quite grasped how much hatred and distrust exists, not only between Jews and Arabs, but between the different Islamic groups and regional powers.

Found via Information Aesthetics, which has a selection of further infographics on the conflict.

Patches of Green

I've previously posted on Christianity on Trial, a book well worth reading for its balanced and convincing approach to historical Christianity and the church's successes and failures.

The conclusion to the book asserts that "if knowledge of such dark episodes [such as the Crusades] in the history of Christianity is essential, it is also corrosive if it is the only knowledge of the past that most people possess." (p.208) The writers point out it is not just society at large, but also the church itself, that has been quick to over-represent failures and paint a unbalanced picture of Christian history that doesn't take into account all the facts available.

The book has been a excellent read and given me a much better sense of the detail of history as well as the bigger picture - the redeeming work that God has done and is doing. I've been especially struck - in a similar way to reading a biography - by what God can accomplish through individuals; the powerful impact that one or two people can have on a society, William Wilberforce being a powerful example. His story, and that of the other British abolitionists and what they accomplished, is almost beyond belief.

In 1770, slaves comprised 22% of the population of Britain's American colonies, 90% in the East and West Indies. Between 1791 and 1800, 400,000 slaves were sold, making these some of the most active years of the slave trade (p.33). It was during these years, when the British economy was heavily dependent on slavery, or slave-produced goods, that the antislavery movement began to pick up steam, driven by the Methodists and men like Wilberforce. The Abolition Act of 1833, brought the emancipation of 780,000 slaves, at a cost to the British government of 20 million pounds!

Equally striking is the reminder, in the conclusion, that we "have no need to pore over historical works to appreciate an example of the more hopeful side of the Christian legacy" as significant examples exist even in the last half century. The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe began with a nonviolent campaign in Poland, sparked off and encouraged by visits by Pope John Paul II in 1979 and 1983. The authors make a convincing case for the importance of the church and Christian faith, as well as the impact of the Pope, during the ensuing events. They comment that even the Chinese government recognised the role that the churches had played and on their own turf sought to 'strangle the baby while it is still in the manger' (p.211). They argue that Christianity's "indigenous growth outside the West is one of the signal democratizing forces around the globe today." (p.211)

Philip Yancey also remarks on these 'patches of green' in a chapter in What's so Amazing about Grace:

"Remarkably, we have lived to see these [Eastern European] dissidents triumph. An alternative kingdom of ragged subjects, of prisoners, poets, and priests, who conveyed their words in the scrawl of hand-copied samizdat, toppled what seemed like an impregnable fortress. In each nation the church operated as a counterforce, sometimes quietly and sometimes loudly insisting on a truth that transcended, and often contradicted, official propaganda. In Poland the Catholics marched past government buildings shouting 'We forgive you!'" (p.261)

PMQs

On the BBC website you can watch the first clash between Tony Blair and David Cameron, the new leader of the Conservative Party. Prime Minister's Question Time is always one of the most watchable and entertaining parts of politics - and this interaction is no exception. The first 6 minutes are well worth a watch..

BTW - if you're wondering why TB's first response is brushed off so quickly, it's because a Backbench MP's first question must be pre-tabled (the standard question is to ask the PM to list his engagements for the day) but he or she is then allowed to ask a 'supplementary' question on any topic they like...

Christian Politics?

I was reflecting with a friend recently on the positions that Christians take across the political spectrum..on a purely economic level. I am certain it is possible to take a Christian perspective on either the left or right wing ends of the spectrum. This is where i've got to: (feel free to disagree!)

As a left wing Christian, one believes, as any Christian, that we are called to act out Christ's ministry on Earth, to fight injustice and feed the poor and so on. Therefore we must to everything in our power to make these things a reality.

As a right wing Christian, one believes the same thing. Except that you leave it to individual responsibility. The fate of the 'poor' in general is ultimately in God's hands, not the government's.

I find myself sympathetic to both positions!